Statement from the forty-seventh greater horn of Africa climate outlook forum (GHACOF47) for October to December 2017 rainfall season

Abstract

October November December (OND) constitutes an important rainfall season over the equatorial sector of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. The regional consensus climate outlook for the October to December 2017 season indicates increased chance for above normal rainfall over much of the southern and equatorial sectors. Increased likelihood of near normal to below normal rainfall over eastern and north-eastern parts of the equatorial and southern parts of the northern sector. There is also increased likelihood of above normal mean temperatures over much of the region. Increased likelihood for below normal mean temperatures is indicated over north-eastern parts of the GHA. Key factors expected to influence the regional climate during the OND 2017 season include the evolution of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Oceans and anomalies in monsoonal wind circulation.